On February 1, 2026, Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, issued a bearish-leaning assessment of Bitcoin’s current market phase. At the time of his writing, Bitcoin was trading in the $77,000 (approximate) level, and Ju’s message was clear: despite previous excitement, the market is not in a bull cycle.
The crux of his thesis revolves around selling pressure mixed with a lack of new demand. Ju cited Bitcoin’s Realized Cap, an on-chain statistic that displays the total cost basis of all coins based on their recent movement. According to his analysis, the Realized Cap has remained flat, indicating that little to no new capital is entering the Bitcoin network. When the market price and capitalization fall while the Realized Cap remains constant, it indicates distribution rather than accumulation.
Bitcoin is dropping as selling pressure persists, with no fresh capital coming in.
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) February 1, 2026
Realized Cap has flatlined, meaning no fresh capital. When market cap falls in that environment, it's not a bull market.
Early holders are sitting on big unrealized gains thanks to ETFs and MSTR… https://t.co/OnnzQMy6Ra pic.twitter.com/J0yTtCTQjr
This pattern stands in stark contrast to bull markets, in which rising prices are usually followed by an increase in realized value as new buyers enter. Ju underlined that without considerable inflows, price decreases are mostly caused by sellers’ stagnating demand.
Ju also cited his own earlier statement from late November 2025, in which he saw Bitcoin as beginning a profit-taking period. At the moment, CryptoQuant’s Profit & Loss (PnL) Index began to indicate conditions compatible with the early stages of a conventional bear market—unless large-scale macro liquidity injections, such as those experienced in 2020, occurred.
So, who’s selling? Ju assigns the majority of the ongoing distribution to early and long-term holders. These investors earned huge unrealized gains during the previous rise, which was supported by spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and aggressive corporate buying, particularly from MicroStrategy. While consistent inflows have previously absorbed this selling pressure and kept prices around all-time highs, they have now slowed or dried up, allowing the selling to eventually push prices lower.
However, Ju does not see a typical cryptocurrency market crash. Unlike previous cycles in 2018 or 2022, he believes institutional anchoring, particularly MicroStrategy’s continuing long-term position, lessens the risk of a significant 70%+ drawdown. Instead, he predicts a broad, lateral consolidation characterized by extended bouts of volatility rather than a sudden vertical drop.
The bottom line is serious but measured: persistent selling continues, new demand is absent, and the market remains in a bear phase. While the fall may be less dramatic than previous cycles, Ju warns against prematurely categorizing the current situation as optimistic.
For the time being, Bitcoin appears to be caught in a distribution-driven market, awaiting either renewed demand or a long period of consolidation.
Disclaimer
Cryptocurrency investments are subject to high market risk and extreme volatility. Prices of digital assets can fluctuate significantly over short periods of time due to market conditions, regulatory developments, technological changes, and other external factors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Invest only what you can afford to lose. The cryptocurrency market is speculative, and losses may exceed expectations. The author and publisher are not responsible for any financial losses incurred as a result of reliance on this information.
